VICTORIAN STATE ELECTION 2018

Like many others, I was completely wrong! This is what we have so far:

Labor – 52  Coalition – 25  Greens – 1   Indep – 2 

Seats won by ALP (7): South Barwon, Burwood, Bass, Ringwood, Northcote, Box Hill, Mount Waverley

Greens: Melbourne – possibly also Prahran

Indep Shep and Mildura

Seats in doubt (8):  Hawthorn, Morwell, Ripon, Brunswick, Bayswater, Sandringham, Nepean, Prahran.  (The ABC also has Benambra in doubt. Brighton now looks safe for LIBS.)

The seats that have changed or are in doubt (or have been close):

Seats that have changed

ALP 2PP L-NP/Other 2PP
South Barwon LIB 55.7 44.3 ALP GAIN
Ringwood LIB 52.7 47.3 ALP GAIN
Bass LIB 52.2 47.8 ALP GAIN
Box Hill LIB 52.0 47.9 ALP GAIN
Burwood LIB 53.2 46.8 ALP GAIN
Mt Waverley LIB 51.3 48.7 ALP GAIN
Northcote GRN 52.8 47.2 ALP GAIN
Mildura NATS 51.3 48.8 INDEP GAIN
Seats in doubt Prev ALP 2PP L-NP/Other 2PP
Bayswater LIB 49.9 50.1 IN DOUBT
Sandringham LIB 49.0 50.1 IN DOUBT
Brunswick ALP 50.1 49.9 IN DOUBT
Hawthorn LIB 49.9 50.1 IN DOUBT
Morwell INDEP 51.9 48.1 ???
Nepean LIB 50.1 49 IN DOUBT
Prahran GRN 29.6 28.3 IN DOUBT
Ripon LIB 50.1 49.9 IN DOUBT
Melbourne GRN 47.6 52.4 GRN now ahead
Benambra LIB 40.7 59.3 INDEP now behind
Brighton LIB 47.2 52.8 LIB now ahead

Full list … not quite updated Sunday morning …

ELECTORATE PARTY 2014, 2018 PRIMARY % 2014 , 2018 2PP %        2014, 2018
Thomastown ALP    ALP 66.7         62.9 78.4       77.9
Broadmeadows ALP    ALP 64.2         70.2 77.8       81.9
Preston ALP    ALP 48.4         53.0 74.6       72.1
Mill Park ALP    ALP 59.8         63.4 69.9       75.2
Kororoit ALP    ALP 60.3          65.1 69.9       76.1
Yuroke ALP    ALP 54.1          60.1 68.5        70.6
St Albans ALP    ALP 56.4         59.8 67.5        71.4
Lara ALP    ALP 55.9         59.2 67.1        69.5
Pascoe Vale ALP    ALP 47.7         39.6 66.8        70.2
Williamstown ALP    ALP 44.6         51.0 66.5        71.5
Sydenham ALP    ALP 57.4          61.9 66.3        67.9
Clarinda ALP    ALP 53.3          58.2 65.9        69.7
Werribee ALP    ALP 56.6          49.1 65.7        60.3
Wendouree ALP    ALP 43.5          49.6 55.8       60.1
Tarneit ALP    ALP 46.8          57.6 50.6        70.0
Footscray ALP    ALP 45.1          58.9 64.5        79.5
Dandenong ALP    ALP 52.8          67.0 62.9        76.9
Altona ALP    ALP 51.9         54.5 62.6        66.5
Bundoora ALP    ALP 52.7         57.4 62.2        68.0
Bendigo West ALP    ALP 47.8         54.4 62.2        68.8
Keysborough ALP    ALP 53.1         55.2 61.9       66.6
Melton ALP    ALP 50.5         34.2 61.2       54.8
Essendon ALP    ALP 40.1         47.0 58.7        64.4
Oakleigh ALP    ALP 45.8         54.9 58.1        66.2
Niddrie ALP    ALP 46.2         56.8 57.7        63.7
Buninyong ALP    ALP 43.6         49.1 56.4        62.2
Geelong ALP    ALP 41.1         48.9 56.1        56.8
Narre Warren South ALP    ALP 48.2         58.9 55.5        57.2
Bendigo East ALP    ALP 46.3         46.9 55.1        62.4
Monbulk ALP    ALP 37.5         42.2 54.9        58.9
Bellarine ALP    ALP 43.6         50.4 54.8        61.5
Narre Warren North ALP    ALP 46.6         51.5 54.5        58.7
Mulgrave ALP    ALP 47.8         57.9 54.5        63.2
Sunbury ALP    ALP 44.1         61.2 54.3        67.4
Yan Yean ALP    ALP 43.1         56.3 53.7        65.7
Macedon ALP    ALP 38.7         50.1 53.7        64.5
Ivanhoe ALP    ALP 35.9         50.4 53.4       64.6
Albert Park ALP    ALP 32.3         47.7 52.9       64.1
Eltham ALP    ALP 40.6         50.3 52.7       61.9
Cranbourne ALP    ALP 43.4         54.3 52.3       70.2
Brunswick ALP    ???     37.9         39.3 52.2      
Mordialloc ALP    ALP 38.7         52.9 52.1       63.4
Richmond ALP    ALP 33.3         47.6 51.8       55.3
Bentleigh ALP    ALP 38.6         52.2 50.8       64.6
Carrum ALP    ALP 45.2        57.2 50.7       65.1
Frankston ALP    ALP 34.9        48.9 50.5       60.7
Ripon LIB     ALP 32.8        37.1 50.1       50.9
Polwarth LIB     LIB 49.6        50.7 50.2      54.3
Morwell NAT    ??? 44.4        10.5 51.8
South Barwon LIB     ALP 46.3        35.6 52.9     57.6
Burwood LIB     ALP 50.1        41.0 53.1     55.6
Eildon LIB     LIB 43.4        47.8 53.8     51.9
Bass LIB     ALP 45.3        37.8 54.5      55.3
Bayswater LIB     ALP 49.3        43.8 54.6      53.0
Mount Waverley LIB     ALP 51.2        44.6 54.6      54.2
Forest Hill LIB     LIB 49.7        49.5 54.8      51.8
Caulfield LIB     LIB 51.7        46.2 54.9     50.2
Ringwood LIB     ALP 48.1        41.2 55.1      55.6
Box Hill LIB     ALP 51.1        45.6 55.7      52.1
Sandringham LIB     ALP 51.6        40.6 57.3      51.2
Nepean LIB     ALP 53.3        39.1 57.6      55.3
Ferntree Gully LIB     LIB 53.9        49.5 57.7      51.6
Hastings LIB     LIB 51.2        45.9 57.7      50.5
Mildura NATS   IND 46.1        38.9 58.1      51.3
Rowville LIB      LIB 53.8        49.9 58.4       54.3
Hawthorn LIB      ???  54.5        41.9 58.6       52.6
Gembrook LIB      LIB 54.7        50.8 58.9       53.1
Croydon LIB       LIB 53.7        48.4 59.3       52.2
Evelyn LIB      LIB 53.5         49.0 59.6       51.8
Benambra LIB      ??? 54.6        39.9 59.7          
Brighton LIB      LIB 55.5        47.6 59.8       52.8
Bulleen LIB      LIB 56.2        50.8 60.6       54.3
Kew LIB      LIB 57.2        49.7 60.6       54.6
South-West Coast LIB      LIB 40.1       32.1 60.9       52.4
Narracan LIB      LIB 55.2       48.8 61.3       54.0
Warrandyte LIB      LIB 56.9       48.7 61.6       52.4
Mornington LIB      LIB 58.8        46.7 62.6       51.3
Euroa NATS  NATS 35.3        60.7 64.4       65.9
Malvern LIB      LIB 62.6        47.4 66.3       51.8
Ovens Valley NATS  NATS 55.5        44.5 66.6       62.1
Gippsland East NATS  NATS 60.4        56.3 67.9      66.7
Lowan NATS  NATS 54.1        67.6 71.3      73.2
Murray Plains NATS  NATS 63.3         61.6 72.4      74.9
Gippsland South NATS  NATS 45.2         65.5 75.8      66.3
Shepparton IND     IND 32.7         36.5 52.6      57.2
Melbourne GRNS   ???? 41.4         39.8 52.4      51.2
Prahran GRNS   ???? 44.8         31.8 50.4
Northcote GRN    ALP 45.2         38.6 50.1      53.1

BEFORE THE ELECTION RESULTS …

Most of the polls and reports have suggested that Victorian voters in the 2018 State Election will return a Labor government to power with a slightly increased majority. Tonight we will know if they are right, or, as we have seen in some recent elections, wildly off the mark.

The election campaign has been far from inspiring. We’ve seen promises splashed at marginal seats, appeals to anti-immigration and mono-culturalism, and nasty bickering from the major parties about donors, ‘red-shirts’ and lobsters.

We’ve also witnessed vicious attacks about attitudes towards women directed at the only party led by a woman, The Greens, including a rape allegation, revelations about misogynistic song lyrics, and digging up a staffer’s six-year-old tweets about porn.

It’s been uncomfortable to watch.

A few weeks ago, I predicted the following result:

Labor – 44        (lose Richmond, Brunswick; regain Melton)
Coalition – 39  (gain Prahran and regain Morwell)
Greens – 4        (gain Richmond, Brunswick; lose Prahran)
Indep – 1           (Shep retain)

The other seats that matter: Bentleigh, Carrum, Cranbourne, Frankston, Mordialloc. Pascoe Vale could be tight for independent. Not sure if anything unexpected will happen in Albert Park or Ripon. Of course – I could be completely wrong  – I often am.

That was before the intense fire on the Greens, and before another tragic incident in Bourke St.

It’s no surprise that Labor have thrown everything, including personal attacks, at the Greens (and I say that as a woman who left the Greens in 2013 because of behaviour I experienced in the party). Labor will never be able to ‘out-green’ the Greens on environmental policies, so they have attacked the party at its weakest point: that is, its organisational culture.

The Greens may finally be compelled to sort out their internal problems, but on some occasions Labor has been unattractively vicious and, perhaps unjustifiably, self-righteous in their attacks.

Nevertheless, while the mood in the electorate seems to have shifted in the past week, the result tonight will still come down to a few seats. It may be significant that 40 percent of Victorians have already voted in early or postal voting.

As polls are about to close, it seems Richmond is line-ball, the Greens are at risk of losing Melbourne, Brunswick could be closer than previously predicted, and Labor may end up better than they were on Friday.

But memories of the Friday before Brumby’s loss in 2010, and the night before Kennett’s loss in 1999 are still fresh for many voters. Both Brumby and Kennett had an air of certainty (hubris?) that proved to be out-of-step with the electorate.

The mood today feels sombre – not helped by the glum weather. The lack of bunting at polls – outlawed this year – is both environmentally sound, and takes away some of the festive feeling of polling day.

The polls and predictions may be right – we’ll just have to tune in to Antony Green – or the Blog 🙂 to find out.

The result will still come down to a handful of seats with close margins – they are the seats in the middle of the table below. The seats to watch are Brunswick, Richmond, Melbourne and the ‘sand-belt’ seats of Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh – and also Prahran.

The table below shows the results four years ago with primaries and two-party-preferred. This will be updated tonight to show the results as they are available.

I’ve updated the table with links to the VEC results page for each electorate.

Good luck to all. May politics be better one day soon.

Currently: Labor – 45  Coalition – 37  (incl NATS 7) Greens – 3  Indep – 3

One thought on “VICTORIAN STATE ELECTION 2018

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