Like many others, I was completely wrong! This is what we have so far:

Labor – 52  Coalition – 25  Greens – 1   Indep – 2 

Seats won by ALP (7): South Barwon, Burwood, Bass, Ringwood, Northcote, Box Hill, Mount Waverley

Greens: Melbourne – possibly also Prahran

Indep:  Shep and Mildura

Seats in doubt (8):  Hawthorn, Morwell, Ripon, Brunswick, Bayswater, Sandringham, Nepean, Prahran.  (The ABC also has Benambra in doubt. Brighton now looks safe for LIBS.)

The seats that have changed or are in doubt (or have been close):

Seats that have changed		ALP 2PP	L-NP/Other 2PP
South Barwon	LIB	55.7	44.3	ALP GAIN
Ringwood	LIB	52.7	47.3	ALP GAIN
Bass	LIB	52.2	47.8	ALP GAIN
Box Hill	LIB	52.0	47.9	ALP GAIN
Burwood	LIB	53.2	46.8	ALP GAIN
Mt Waverley	LIB	51.3	48.7	ALP GAIN
Northcote	GRN	52.8	47.2	ALP GAIN
Mildura	NATS	51.3	48.8	INDEP GAIN

Seats in doubt	Prev	ALP 2PP	L-NP/Other 2PP
Bayswater	LIB	49.9	50.1	IN DOUBT
Sandringham	LIB	49.0	50.1	IN DOUBT
Brunswick	ALP	50.1	49.9	IN DOUBT
Hawthorn	LIB	49.9	50.1	IN DOUBT
Morwell	INDEP	51.9	48.1	???
Nepean	LIB	50.1	49	IN DOUBT
Prahran	GRN	29.6	28.3	IN DOUBT
Ripon	LIB	50.1	49.9	IN DOUBT
Melbourne	GRN	47.6	52.4	GRN now ahead

Benambra	LIB	40.7	59.3	INDEP now behind
Brighton	LIB	47.2	52.8	LIB now ahead

Full list … not quite updated Sunday morning …

ELECTORATE	PARTY 2014, 2018	PRIMARY % 2014 , 2018	2PP %        2014, 2018
Thomastown	ALP    ALP	66.7         62.9	78.4       77.9
Broadmeadows	ALP    ALP	64.2         70.2	77.8       81.9
Preston	ALP    ALP	48.4         53.0	74.6       72.1
Mill Park	ALP    ALP	59.8         63.4	69.9       75.2
Kororoit	ALP    ALP	60.3          65.1	69.9       76.1
Yuroke	ALP    ALP	54.1          60.1	68.5        70.6
St Albans	ALP    ALP	56.4         59.8	67.5        71.4
Lara	ALP    ALP	55.9         59.2	67.1        69.5
Pascoe Vale	ALP    ALP	47.7         39.6	66.8        70.2
Williamstown	ALP    ALP	44.6         51.0	66.5        71.5
Sydenham	ALP    ALP	57.4          61.9	66.3        67.9
Clarinda	ALP    ALP	53.3          58.2	65.9        69.7
Werribee	ALP    ALP	56.6          49.1	65.7        60.3
Wendouree	ALP    ALP	43.5          49.6	55.8       60.1
Tarneit	ALP    ALP	46.8          57.6	50.6        70.0
Footscray	ALP    ALP	45.1          58.9	64.5        79.5
Dandenong	ALP    ALP	52.8          67.0	62.9        76.9
Altona	ALP    ALP	51.9         54.5	62.6        66.5
Bundoora	ALP    ALP	52.7         57.4	62.2        68.0
Bendigo West	ALP    ALP	47.8         54.4	62.2        68.8
Keysborough	ALP    ALP	53.1         55.2	61.9       66.6
Melton	ALP    ALP	50.5         34.2	61.2       54.8
Essendon	ALP    ALP	40.1         47.0	58.7        64.4
Oakleigh	ALP    ALP	45.8         54.9	58.1        66.2
Niddrie	ALP    ALP	46.2         56.8	57.7        63.7
Buninyong	ALP    ALP	43.6         49.1	56.4        62.2
Geelong	ALP    ALP	41.1         48.9	56.1        56.8
Narre Warren South	ALP    ALP	48.2         58.9	55.5        57.2
Bendigo East	ALP    ALP	46.3         46.9	55.1        62.4
Monbulk	ALP    ALP	37.5         42.2	54.9        58.9
Bellarine	ALP    ALP	43.6         50.4	54.8        61.5
Narre Warren North	ALP    ALP	46.6         51.5	54.5        58.7
Mulgrave	ALP    ALP	47.8         57.9	54.5        63.2
Sunbury	ALP    ALP	44.1         61.2	54.3        67.4
Yan Yean	ALP    ALP	43.1         56.3	53.7        65.7
Macedon	ALP    ALP	38.7         50.1	53.7        64.5
Ivanhoe	ALP    ALP	35.9         50.4	53.4       64.6
Albert Park	ALP    ALP	32.3         47.7	52.9       64.1
Eltham	ALP    ALP	40.6         50.3	52.7       61.9
Cranbourne	ALP    ALP	43.4         54.3	52.3       70.2
Brunswick	ALP    ???	37.9         39.3	52.2
Mordialloc	ALP    ALP	38.7         52.9	52.1       63.4
Richmond	ALP    ALP	33.3         47.6	51.8       55.3
Bentleigh	ALP    ALP	38.6         52.2	50.8       64.6
Carrum	ALP    ALP	45.2        57.2	50.7       65.1
Frankston	ALP    ALP	34.9        48.9	50.5       60.7
Ripon	LIB     ALP	32.8        37.1	50.1       50.9
Polwarth	LIB     LIB	49.6        50.7	50.2      54.3
Morwell	NAT    ???	44.4        10.5	51.8
South Barwon	LIB     ALP	46.3        35.6	52.9     57.6
Burwood	LIB     ALP	50.1        41.0	53.1     55.6
Eildon	LIB     LIB	43.4        47.8	53.8     51.9
Bass	LIB     ALP	45.3        37.8	54.5      55.3
Bayswater	LIB     ALP	49.3        43.8	54.6      53.0
Mount Waverley	LIB     ALP	51.2        44.6	54.6      54.2
Forest Hill	LIB     LIB	49.7        49.5	54.8      51.8
Caulfield	LIB     LIB	51.7        46.2	54.9     50.2
Ringwood	LIB     ALP	48.1        41.2	55.1      55.6
Box Hill	LIB     ALP	51.1        45.6	55.7      52.1
Sandringham	LIB     ALP	51.6        40.6	57.3      51.2
Nepean	LIB     ALP	53.3        39.1	57.6      55.3
Ferntree Gully	LIB     LIB	53.9        49.5	57.7      51.6
Hastings	LIB     LIB	51.2        45.9	57.7      50.5
Mildura	NATS   IND	46.1        38.9	58.1      51.3
Rowville	LIB      LIB	53.8        49.9	58.4       54.3
Hawthorn	LIB      ???	54.5        41.9	58.6       52.6
Gembrook	LIB      LIB	54.7        50.8	58.9       53.1
Croydon	LIB       LIB	53.7        48.4	59.3       52.2
Evelyn	LIB      LIB	53.5         49.0	59.6       51.8
Benambra	LIB      ???	54.6        39.9	59.7
Brighton	LIB      LIB	55.5        47.6	59.8       52.8
Bulleen	LIB      LIB	56.2        50.8	60.6       54.3
Kew	LIB      LIB	57.2        49.7	60.6       54.6
South-West Coast	LIB      LIB	40.1       32.1	60.9       52.4
Narracan	LIB      LIB	55.2       48.8	61.3       54.0
Warrandyte	LIB      LIB	56.9       48.7	61.6       52.4
Mornington	LIB      LIB	58.8        46.7	62.6       51.3
Euroa	NATS  NATS	35.3        60.7	64.4       65.9
Malvern	LIB      LIB	62.6        47.4	66.3       51.8
Ovens Valley	NATS  NATS	55.5        44.5	66.6       62.1
Gippsland East	NATS  NATS	60.4        56.3	67.9      66.7
Lowan	NATS  NATS	54.1        67.6	71.3      73.2
Murray Plains	NATS  NATS	63.3         61.6	72.4      74.9
Gippsland South	NATS  NATS	45.2         65.5	75.8      66.3
Shepparton	IND     IND	32.7         36.5	52.6      57.2
Melbourne	GRNS   ????	41.4         39.8	52.4      51.2
Prahran	GRNS   ????	44.8         31.8	50.4
Northcote	GRN    ALP	45.2         38.6	50.1      53.1

BEFORE THE ELECTION RESULTS …

Most of the polls and reports have suggested that Victorian voters in the 2018 State Election will return a Labor government to power with a slightly increased majority. Tonight we will know if they are right, or, as we have seen in some recent elections, wildly off the mark.

The election campaign has been far from inspiring. We’ve seen promises splashed at marginal seats, appeals to anti-immigration and mono-culturalism, and nasty bickering from the major parties about donors, ‘red-shirts’ and lobsters.

We’ve also witnessed vicious attacks about attitudes towards women directed at the only party led by a woman, The Greens, including a rape allegation, revelations about misogynistic song lyrics, and digging up a staffer’s six-year-old tweets about porn.

It’s been uncomfortable to watch.

A few weeks ago, I predicted the following result:

Labor – 44        (lose Richmond, Brunswick; regain Melton)
Coalition – 39  (gain Prahran and regain Morwell)
Greens – 4        (gain Richmond, Brunswick; lose Prahran)
Indep – 1           (Shep retain)

The other seats that matter: Bentleigh, Carrum, Cranbourne, Frankston, Mordialloc. Pascoe Vale could be tight for independent. Not sure if anything unexpected will happen in Albert Park or Ripon. Of course – I could be completely wrong  – I often am.

That was before the intense fire on the Greens, and before another tragic incident in Bourke St.

It’s no surprise that Labor have thrown everything, including personal attacks, at the Greens (and I say that as a woman who left the Greens in 2013 because of behaviour I experienced in the party). Labor will never be able to ‘out-green’ the Greens on environmental policies, so they have attacked the party at its weakest point: that is, its organisational culture.

The Greens may finally be compelled to sort out their internal problems, but on some occasions Labor has been unattractively vicious and, perhaps unjustifiably, self-righteous in their attacks.

Nevertheless, while the mood in the electorate seems to have shifted in the past week, the result tonight will still come down to a few seats. It may be significant that 40 percent of Victorians have already voted in early or postal voting.

As polls are about to close, it seems Richmond is line-ball, the Greens are at risk of losing Melbourne, Brunswick could be closer than previously predicted, and Labor may end up better than they were on Friday.

But memories of the Friday before Brumby’s loss in 2010, and the night before Kennett’s loss in 1999 are still fresh for many voters. Both Brumby and Kennett had an air of certainty (hubris?) that proved to be out-of-step with the electorate.

The mood today feels sombre – not helped by the glum weather. The lack of bunting at polls – outlawed this year – is both environmentally sound, and takes away some of the festive feeling of polling day.

The polls and predictions may be right – we’ll just have to tune in to Antony Green – or the Blog 🙂 to find out.

The result will still come down to a handful of seats with close margins – they are the seats in the middle of the table below. The seats to watch are Brunswick, Richmond, Melbourne and the ‘sand-belt’ seats of Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh – and also Prahran.

The table below shows the results four years ago with primaries and two-party-preferred. This will be updated tonight to show the results as they are available.

I’ve updated the table with links to the VEC results page for each electorate.

Good luck to all. May politics be better one day soon.

Currently: Labor – 45  Coalition – 37  (incl NATS 7) Greens – 3  Indep – 3