Australia is likely to go to the polls in a few months – the shortest odds are for a May election.

After the Coalition’s internal disarray and leadership swaps, many have assumed Moonee Valley will find itself hosting Australia’s next Prime Minister – Maribyrnong member, Bill Shorten.

But the latest Ipsos opinion poll – putting the ALP at 51% to the Coalition’s 49% – has challenged this assumption. (Notably, this poll of 1200 voters has a margin of error of 2.9%.)

My records tell me that the last Ipsos poll before the July 2016 election recorded a similar result – and the Coalition narrowly won a few days later.

For those of us in Moonee Valley perhaps a little excited about hosting our first Prime Minister (or maybe excited about a future government that believes in climate change and doesn’t want to deny refugees medical treatment … author’s honesty breaking through), it’s worth looking at just what it will take for the ALP to win the next federal election.

In 2016, Labor won 14 seats – taking it from 55 to 69 seats out of the 150 in the House of Representatives. The Coalition’s representation dropped from 90 to 76. After a number of by-elections and resignations, the current split in the House is:

	2013	2016	Current
COALITION	90	76	74
ALP	55	69	69
GREENS	1	1	1
INDEPENDENT	4	2 (Wilkie, McG.)	4 (+ Phelps, Banks)
XENOPHON		1	1 (CA)
KATTER AP		1	1

A redistribution of electorates last year by the AEC resulted in two new seats being created (Bean and Fraser) and one being abolished (Port Adelaide). The ALP is expected to win Bean (ACT) and Fraser (VIC), and drop one seat in the removal of Port Adelaide (sitting ALP MP Mark Butler has become the candidate for Hindmarsh).

ALP 70  + Coalition 74 + 7 other = 151

With a new total of 151 seats, the magic number for majority government (with a speaker) is either 77 or 76. If a party wins 76 seats, the nomination of a speaker reduces the number by one, but I believe the speaker can cast a deciding vote in the case of a 75/75 tie. Obviously, winning 77 seats would provide for a more comfortable majority.

So to form a majority government, the ALP needs to win another 6 or 7 seats – as well as retain the seats won in 2016.

The seats they will be working hard to retain probably include:

• NSW – Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Macquarie, Barton, Macarthur, Dobell
• QLD – Longman
• TAS – Braddon, Lyons, Bass
• NT – Solomon

Provided they hold on to all 68 seats, and collect Fraser and Bean, they will have to win six or seven of any of the following seats to win majority government (the notional margins from the AEC based on new boundaries and previous election results are in brackets).

• Corangamite (0.03% in favour of ALP) VIC
• Dunkley (1.03% in favour of ALP) VIC
• Capricornia (0.63% in favour of Coalition) QLD
• Forde (0.63% in favour of Coalition) QLD
• Gilmore (0.73% in favour of Coalition) NSW
• Flynn (1.04% in favour of Coalition) QLD
• Dickson (1.69% in favour of Coalition) QLD
• Chisholm (2.91% in favour of Coalition) VIC
• La Trobe (3.22% in favour of Coalition) VIC

Note the concentration of seats in Victoria and Queensland – two very different states. Of course, there are other electorates the ALP could try to win from the Coalition or independents, but these are some of the seats with the smallest nominal margins.

(NB – I’m not exactly sure how the AEC calculates these notional margins and whether they are affected by the high numbers of people now voting early and away from local polling booths. These margins may prove to be guesstimates).

The Age has reported that Labor is also targeting the seats of Casey (4.54%), Deakin (6.44%), Flinders (7.01%) and Aston (7.41%) – margins in brackets.

GetUp is also believed to be targeting Menzies, Warringah, Dickson and possibly Kooyong – although GetUp is not aligned with any political party.

Of course, the ALP could form a minority government with the support of the Greens (unlikely to lose Melbourne) and possibly Andrew Wilkie if he wins the newly named seat of Clark (previously Denison), but this is probably not their preferred option.

Additionally, there are other very marginal seats that the ALP will have to work hard to retain including Herbert in Queensland, which the ALP won by 37 votes in 2016, and Cowan in Western Australia.

There are also the challenges to fend off from the Victorian Greens in Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports – 1.21%), Cooper (formerly Batman – 1.27%) and Wills (4.93%).

At the Victorian state election in November 2018, we saw the sitting Labor government win in a landslide. This seemed to be the result of a huge advertising spend, and a lacklustre opposition with no money and even fewer policies. The Liberal campaign on fear in Victoria failed spectacularly.

All indications are that the current federal government still believes it can win elections based on (unfounded) fear of refugees and migrants. It seems to continue to ignore the growing constituency who are much more afraid of catastrophic climate change.

Moonee Valley may well play host to Australia’s next Prime Minister, but only if the battles on the ground in about two dozen electorates fall Labor’s way, and if the good people of Australia aren’t seduced by fear mongering and race-based politics that continues to stain our international reputation.

UPDATE: In fact, as we now all know, the ALP lost the election.

Of the seats it was trying to retain, it lost Braddon, Bass, Lindsay, Longman and Herbert.

• NSW – Lindsay
• QLD – Longman, Herbert
• TAS – Braddon, Bass

The ALP gained Gilmore in NSW, and Corangamite and Dunkley in Vic, resulting in only 68 seats.

Electorate pendulum (targeted or marginal seats possibly targeted by ALP, GetUp, Greens or Independents in bold):

	Margin (AEC)		Held by ALP		Margin (AEC)		Held by Coalition
Herbert	0.02	QLD	ALP	Corangamite	0.03	VIC	LP
Cowan	0.68	WA	ALP	Capricornia	0.63	QLD	LNP
Longman	0.79	QLD	ALP	Forde	0.63	QLD	LNP
Lindsay	1.11	NSW	ALP	Gilmore	0.73	NSW	LP
Macnamara	1.21	VIC	ALP	Dunkley	1.03	VIC	LP
Cooper	1.27	VIC	ALP	Flynn	1.04	QLD	LNP
Griffith	1.43	QLD	ALP	Grey	1.07	SA	LP
Braddon	1.73	TAS	ALP	Robertson	1.14	NSW	LP
Macquarie	2.19	NSW	ALP	Banks	1.44	NSW	LP
Eden-Monaro	2.93	NSW	ALP	Petrie	1.65	QLD	LNP
Isaacs	2.98	VIC	ALP	Dickson	1.69	QLD	LNP
Perth	3.33	WA	ALP	Hasluck	2.05	WA	LP
Lyons	3.83	TAS	ALP	Page	2.3	NSW	NP
Bendigo	3.87	VIC	ALP	Nicholls	2.49	VIC	NP
Richmond	3.96	NSW	ALP	Boothby	2.71	SA	LP
Moreton	4.02	QLD	ALP	La Trobe	3.22	VIC	LP
Hotham	4.21	VIC	ALP	Dawson	3.37	QLD	LNP
Dobell	4.81	NSW	ALP	Bonner	3.39	QLD	LNP
Wills	4.93	VIC	ALP	Barker	3.43	SA	LP
Bass	5.42	TAS	ALP	Swan	3.59	WA	LP
Jagajaga	5.6	VIC	ALP	Pearce	3.63	WA	LP
Lilley	5.68	QLD	ALP	Leichhardt	3.95	QLD	LNP
McEwen	6	VIC	ALP	Casey	4.54	VIC	LP
Solomon	6.09	NT	ALP	Cowper	4.56	NSW	NP
Greenway	6.31	NSW	ALP	Reid	4.69	NSW	LP
Burt	7.11	WA	ALP	Sturt	5.39	SA	LP
Ballarat	7.36	VIC	ALP	Brisbane	6	QLD	LP
Fremantle	7.52	WA	ALP	Stirling	6.12	WA	LP
Parramatta	7.67	NSW	ALP	Deakin	6.44	VIC	LP
Blair	8.14	QLD	ALP	Canning	6.79	WA	LP
Lingiari	8.19	NT	ALP	Flinders	7.01	VIC	LP
Werriwa	8.2	NSW	ALP	Bowman	7.07	QLD	LNP
Corio	8.2	VIC	ALP	Higgins	7.38	VIC	LP
Barton	8.3	NSW	ALP	Aston	7.41	VIC	LP
Adelaide	8.3	SA	ALP	Monash	7.51	VIC	LP
Macarthur	8.33	NSW	ALP	Menzies	7.91	VIC	LP
Hindmarsh	8.43	SA	ALP	Hinkler	8.38	QLD	LNP
Kingsford Smith	8.57	NSW	ALP	New England	8.52	NSW	NP
Bean	8.85	ACT	NEW	Wide Bay	8.91	QLD	LNP
Oxley	9.01	QLD	ALP	Ryan	8.98	QLD	LNP
Shortland	9.94	NSW	ALP	Wannon	9.15	VIC	LP
Holt	9.94	VIC	ALP	Fisher	9.15	QLD	LNP
Maribyrnong	10.4	VIC	ALP	Hughes	9.33	NSW	LP
Franklin	10.73	TAS	ALP	Wright	9.62	QLD	LNP
Paterson	10.74	NSW	ALP	Bennelong	9.72	NSW	LP
Makin	10.79	SA	ALP	Hume	10.18	NSW	LP
Rankin	11.3	QLD	ALP	Fairfax	10.87	QLD	LNP
Brand	11.43	WA	ALP	Moore	11.02	WA	LP
Fenner	11.84	ACT	ALP	Durack	11.06	WA	LP
McMahon	12.11	NSW	ALP	Tangney	11.07	WA	LP
Hunter	12.46	NSW	ALP	Fadden	11.24	QLD	LNP
Canberra	12.94	ACT	ALP	Warringah	11.55	NSW	LP
Cunningham	13.32	NSW	ALP	Lyne	11.63	NSW	NP
Kingston	13.55	SA	ALP	McPherson	11.64	QLD	LNP
Whitlam	13.72	NSW	ALP	Calare	11.81	NSW	NP
Newcastle	13.84	NSW	ALP	Forrest	12.56	WA	LP
Bruce	14.05	VIC	ALP	Goldstein	12.68	VIC	LP
Lalor	14.19	VIC	ALP	Kooyong	12.82	VIC	LP
Gellibrand	15.12	VIC	ALP	North Sydney	13.61	NSW	LP
Sydney	15.31	NSW	ALP	Moncrieff	14.61	QLD	LNP
Grayndler	15.82	NSW	ALP	O.Connor	15.04	WA	LP
Spence	17.17	SA	ALP	Parkes	15.1	NSW	NP
Fowler	17.49	NSW	ALP	Groom	15.31	QLD	LNP
Watson	17.58	NSW	ALP	Cook	15.39	NSW	LP
Gorton	18.49	VIC	ALP	Mackellar	15.74	NSW	LP
Chifley	19.19	NSW	ALP	Maranoa	15.86	QLD	LNP
Blaxland	19.48	NSW	ALP	Riverina	16.44	NSW	NP
Scullin	19.58	VIC	ALP	Berowra	16.45	NSW	LP
Calwell	19.73	VIC	ALP	Mitchell	17.82	NSW	LP
Fraser	19.79	VIC	NEW	Gippsland	18.21	VIC	NP
				Mallee	19.8	VIC	NP
				Farrer	20.53	NSW	LP
				Curtin	20.7	WA	LP
Melbourne	19.04	VIC	GRNS	Bradfield	21.04	NSW	LP
Clark	17.77	TAS	INDEP	Chisholm	2.91	VIC	INDEP
Mayo	2.92	SA	CA	Wentworth		NSW	INDEP
Kennedy	11	QLD	KAP	Indi	5.52	VIC	INDEP

• ALP = Australian Labor Party
• LP = Liberal Party
• LNP = Liberal National Party
• GRNS = Greens
• NP = National Party
• KAP = Katter Australia Party